HomeMy WebLinkAboutemail Covington on traffic countsMalone, Walter
From: Casey Covington [covington@metroplan.org]
Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 11:08 AM
To: Malone, Walter
Cc: Richard Magee; Jonathan Lupton
Subject: RE: University counts
®1
University
Projections.doc
Walter
In the attached memo you will find updated traffic projections for University Avenue north of
Markham. The memo includes a short section on the growth in population and employment
surrounding University Avenue which was used in the development of the traffic projections.
If you have any additional questions please let me know. I was able to use the volumes that you
provided to make a couple of minor adjustments in the model to better reflect network loading.
Casey R. Covington, P.E.
Transportation Engineer
Metroplan - A Council of Local Governments
501 West Markham - Suite B
Little Rock, AR 72201
Phone: (501) 372-3300
Fax: (501) 372-8060
-----Original Message -----
From: Malone, Walter fmaiIto: WMaloneC&_littlerock.orgJ
Sent: Friday, March 14, 2008 2:54 PM
To: covinat_on(@m_etroclan.org
Subject: FW: University counts
Here are the counts for University Avenue. Please let me know when you think you might have
something.
Thanks
Walter Malone, AICP
Planning Manager
----Original Message -----
From: Clay, Greg
Sent: Thursday, March 13, 2008 10:55 AM
To: Malone, Walter
Subject: University counts
Walter,
Here are the volume counts you requested for University Ave.
1. just N of Markham - 23827
2. just S of Lee - 20615
3. between Evergreen & H - 18970
Thanks,
9
Gregory W. Clay
Traffic Operations Supervisor
City of Little Rock Public Works
Traffic Engineering
621 S. Broadway
Little Rock, AR 72201
Phone (501) 379.1811 Fax (501) 379.1850
METROPLANI•�
A COUNCIL OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Telephone (501) 372-3300
MEMORANDUM
TO: Walter Malone
FROM: Casey R. Covington and Jonathan Lupton
DATE: March 20, 2008
SUBJECT: University Avenue Traffic Projections
The City of Little Rock has asked Metroplan to review traffic projections for University Avenue from
Cantrell to Markham. The following sections discuss socioeconomic projections for the area neighboring
University Avenue and traffic projections developed using the CARTS Travel Demand Model.
Socioeconomic Projections
Socioeconomic projections for Little Rock/North Little Rock/Conway MSA are based on a continuation
of suburban growth, with slight densification of employment and population within the urban center of
Little Rock and North Little Rock. For the University Corridor (I-630 to Cantrell) both an increase in
population and employment is forecast, albeit only small growth in population and moderate growth in
employment. The population projection may be more accurate at the aggregate level than for specific
Traffic Analysis Zones. This forecast assumes that some redevelopment with densification will occur
within the corridor by 2030, but the majority of these new residential units and commercial structures will
replace existing housing and employment. Tables 1 and 2 below list population and employment
projections for 2000 and 2030. Figuresl and 2 show the change in population and employment for zones
within the University corridor.
Table 1: Socioeconomic Protections — Traffic Analysis Zones Bordering University
3/27/2008 Page 1 of 4
Population Estimate
Employment Estimate
2000
6970
12170
2010
6972
12743
2030
7767
14224
2000-2030 Growth in Percent
11.4%
16.9%
3/27/2008 Page 1 of 4
Table 2: Socioeconomic Proiections — Traffic Analysis Zones with 1 Mile of University
Figure 1: Ponulation Growth
3/27/2008 Page 2 of 4
Population Estimate
Employment Estimate
2000
15639
27116
2010
15638
28753
2030
16705
31863
2000-2030 Growth in Percent 1
6.8%
17.5%
Figure 1: Ponulation Growth
3/27/2008 Page 2 of 4
Traffic Projections
The traffic forecast for University was developed for two options: (a) the existing cross-section; and (b)
upgrading the entire corridor to 6 lanes. Comparisons of existing traffic counts and modeled estimates
indicate that for this section of University volumes are replicated to within 10 to 20 %. Forecast may
have additional error if development patterns differ significantly from the forecast or travel patterns
change due to economic or other factors. Table 3 lists existing traffic volumes and traffic projections for
University Avenue,
3/27/2008 Page 3 of 4
Table 3: Traffic Projections along University
*When evaluating the ultimate cross-section for this section of University, one should consider that these
projections are only for 20 years. Beyond 2030 the traffic volume will continue to change and will
depend on further corridor redevelopment and travel pattern changes.
3/27/2008 Page 4 of 4
Existing Volume
2030 Forecast Volume
(4 Lanes)
2030 Forecast (6 Lanes)
Cantrell to Ever een
17,000
25,000
26,000
Ever een to H Street
19,000
26,000
28,000
H Street to Lee Street
21,000
27,000
1 29,000
Lee Street to Markham
21,000 to 24,000
28,000 to 34,000
1 30,000 to 36,000
*When evaluating the ultimate cross-section for this section of University, one should consider that these
projections are only for 20 years. Beyond 2030 the traffic volume will continue to change and will
depend on further corridor redevelopment and travel pattern changes.
3/27/2008 Page 4 of 4